Secretary of State Marco Rubio has emerged as the betting favorite to win the 2028 presidential election, surpassing Vice President JD Vance in early political odds.
According to prediction market Kalshi, Rubio now holds a 20% probability of winning the next presidential race, placing him ahead of both Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom. The shift in odds reflects Rubio’s elevated profile within the Trump administration over recent weeks.
Secretary Marco Rubio has now surged to become the FAVORITE to win the 2028 Presidential Election.
He has OVERTAKEN both Gavin Newsom and J.D. Vance and now sits at a 20% chance of winning it all.
Today, Rubio dropped one of the most powerful political videos ever aired.… https://t.co/glbPAf6irf pic.twitter.com/BMjNSlYEsF
— Overton (@overton_news) May 7, 2026
Rubio’s Expanding Role
As Secretary of State, Rubio has taken on responsibilities well beyond his formal title. He has served as acting administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development, acting archivist of the United States, and acting national security adviser during the early months of the second Trump administration.
The breadth of his assignments prompted media outlets to dub him the “Secretary of Everything.” Rubio has embraced the nickname, and on Tuesday, he filled in for White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt during her maternity leave.
The Vice President’s Position
Vice President Vance has indicated he plans to discuss his political future with President Trump in February, after the midterm elections. The timing suggests uncertainty about whether Vance will pursue higher office in 2028.
Rubio’s ascendancy in political betting markets remains early in the election cycle, and historical precedent shows prediction odds can shift significantly as 2028 approaches.
This story has been updated. CNN’s political team contributed to this report.